Srie Hartati

Harga emas menguat secara modest di awal perdagangan Asia di hari Rabu akibat aksi beli safe-haven terkait berlanjutnya kekhawatiran seputar hutang zona euro, ketegangan di semenanjung Korea serta kecemasan atas kembali menguatnya dollar.

Kekhawatiran merebak berkenaan prospek pertumbuhan dunia setelah negara Spanyol mengambil alih sebuah bank kecil di akhir pekan lalu, sehingga memicu kembali ketakutan mengenai masalah krisis hutang di negara-negara zona euro dan mengguncang mata uang tunggal Eropa. Dalam jajak pendapat Reuters, secara umum harga emas diperkirakan melanjutkan tren penguatannya hingga bulan depan terkait kekhawatiran masalah hutang Eropa dan meluasnya ketidakstabilan di pasar uang memacu permintaan akan logam mulia untuk menghindar dari resiko.

 

"Harga emas kembali banyak diminta sehingga akan kokoh di kisaran area $1,200-1,250 terkait tingkat resiko atas buruknya kredit sejumlah negara kembali tinggi," ungkap Greg Orrell, manajer portofolio pada OCM Gold Fund, Amerika. Menjelang siang harga emas sempat tercatat pada level $1,203.45 per ons dibanding hari Selasa yang hanya $1,200.10.

 

Harga tembaga dan minyak bangkit, membuat saham komoditi Asia lebih tinggi, terkait Rio Tinto Group mengatakan diperkirakan permintaan di Cina meningkat.

Won stabil terkait pemerintah Korea Selatan berjanji untuk melakukan interfensi dalam pasar mata uang ditegang ketegangan dengan Korea Utara. Tembaga naik 1.4% dan minyak melambung 1% di Tokyo. Won melemah 0.3% ke 1,255.15 per dollar, setelah kemarin sempat melemah 3%, terendah dalam satu tahun. Sentimen investor meningkat setelah Rio, perusahaan pertambangan terbesar ketiga di dunia mengatakan diperkirakan permintaan komoditi di Cina, motor pemulihan global, meningkat dalam 15 tahun mendatang. Kecemasan krisis hutang Eropa dan pembatasan properti Cina akan membebani  pertumbuhan yang telah menyeret Indeks MSCI World turun 16% dari level tingginya tahun ini pada 15 April. “Kami punya berita yang buruk di semua tempat namun di lain pihak, kamu punya peningkatan pendapatan, dan kondisi ekonomi yang lebih baik di sebagian besar wilayah di dunia,” kata Donald Gimbel, direktur pelaksana senior Carret Asset Management LLC, dalam wawancara di Bloomberg Television.

 “Saat ini kemungkinan saat yang tepat untuk mendapatkan beberapa keuntungan yang telah di dapat pada dua sampai tiga pekan terakhir.” Minyak mencapai $69.44 per barrel di New York.

Harga minyak kontrak berjangka untuk pengiriman bulan Juni menguat 1.8% ke level $70 per barel di hari Rabu, bertambah naik lebih dari $1 dari hari Selasa setelah pihak American Petroleum Institute melaporkan turunnya persediaan minyak dan gas A.S, sehingga diperkirakan dapat menimbulkan permintaan yang tinggi untuk minyak mentah.

Sementara secara teknikal minyak mentah berjangka A.S diprediksi akan bergerak reli menuju level $74.00 setelah mencapai retracement dari terendah $67.15 per barrel selama sesi perdagangan sebelumnya. Level support kuat diperkirakan masih berada di angka sesi perdagangan lalu pada $66.91 – level 61.8% dari Fibonacci retracement yang ditarik antara $64.24 s/d $71.23.

 

Kondisi rebound saat ini dikaitkan dengan pola gelombang "c" yang akan menekan harga minyak naik menuju level $74.00, sementara koreksi diperkirakan tidak terjadi bila harga anjlok dibawah trend line support di $68.00.      

 

 

 

Prediksi ini di analisa oleh Wang Tao, analis pasar Reuters untuk teknikal energi dan komoditi.

Commodity Online Sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a much weaker-than-expected Euro and slightly higher-than-expected non-OPEC supply has forced Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofAML) to revises its WTI and Brent crude oil forecasts for second half of 2010 from $92/barrel to $78 per barrel. Yet despite the much reduced likelihood of a robust upswing in global economic activity, BofAML remain cautiously optimistic that the breadth of the recovery outside Southern Europe will prevent a double-dip scenario. Hence it has maintained its 2011 WTI and Brent crude oil price forecast at $85 per barrel.
In view of the slower global economic growth ahead, BofAML has lowered its 2010 world oil demand growth forecast to 1.5 mn b/d from 2.0 mn barrels earlier. It has now predicted 20,000 b/d of growth in OECD regions in 2010 and 50,000 b/d of growth in 2011.The demand expansion in North America and OECD Asia will be offset by contraction in European oil consumption.
Emerging markets will account for greater share of increase in consumption led by China.
On the supply side, non-OPEC countries will expand their supply by 583,000 b/d annualy to 52.1 mn b/d compare to BofAMLs previous estimate of one percent growth.In 2011, non-OPEC supply will rise to 52.4 mn b/d, which is up by 357,000 tonnes or 0.7%. Major additions will come from projects starting in Brazil, China, and the US and
continued ramp up of projects that started last year
A riskier macro environment and a weak supply/demand balance around Cushing, the NYMEX delivery point, triggered a sharp WTI crude oil sell off during the past week.
European banks are becoming more reluctant to lend Since European banks are large holders of sovereign debt, a sequence of defaults or even just downgrades in the region could precipitate a large correction in bank assets and in turn increase collateral demands. On the liability side, bank funding costs have risen sharply following the rise in sovereign credit spreads Surely, the policy measures announced two weeks ago should ease funding pressures in the near term for European banks, but the recent moves in LIBOR-OIS spreads are showing signs of some short-term funding strains. These moves are not good news for the real economy, as the global economic recovery is partly predicated on an inventory restocking cycle and increased fixed asset investment, two of the most volatile components of GDP. With funding drying up, many companies will likely postpone investment decisions, reducing demand in the short-run, BofAML analysis said.
European sovereign debt crisis encouraging flight to safety Implied volatilities in cyclical asset classes such as equities and commodities have also spiked in the last month. Investor flows are largely reflecting a flight to safety, and leverage is being reduced across various financial markets. The combination of higher sovereign risk, a falling Euro and the financial regulation bill recently passed in the US Senate should continue to provide support for USDdenominated safe haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries.
Downside risks GDP growth in China has likely peaked this year at 11.9% and will slowdown in the fourth quarter. Monetary tightening measures will hurt demand prospects in China for oil.
Of the nearly 1 million b/d of additional non-OPEC oil supply expected in 2010 and 2011, Brazil and Russia account for almost 70%. Brazil has five new projects starting within the next two years, representing 355 thousand b/d of additional capacity. Most notable are Baleia Franca and Peregrino, as well as the much-anticipated start up of the Tupi pilot project by the end of this year. Russia has fewer and smaller projects scheduled to start in 2010 and 2011, most notablythe Yuri Korchagin which reached first oil merely weeks ago, but continues to benefit from continued ramp up of very large projects.
Production from the Vankor project, which started a year ago, has already increased to 265 thousand b/d as of mid-May and should reach 300 thousand b/d by the end of the year. Like Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are also seeing significant growth from existing projects. ACG is expected to ramp up through 2013, reaching over 850 thousand b/d this year, up 5% versus last year, while Tengiz continues to come in stronger than expected, currently reaching production rates of about 540 thousand b/d after ramping up to 250 thousand b/d last year.
Decline continues to weigh on non-OPEC oil supply growth Despite growth in a handful of non-OECD regions, declines continue to depress volumes out of Norway and the UK. Combined, production is expected to fall by 55 thousand b/d in 2010 and 2011 despite the start-up of new projects. Malaysia has also seen dramatic annual declines with volumes falling 4.5% last year compared to 0.6% the prior year, and the trend to continue, estimating declines of 3-5% in coming years. On the other hand, Mexican oil supply seems to be declining at a slower rate. Since the second half of 2009, decline rates have trended lower, averaging 3-5% in the last couple of months versus 8-12% over the last two of years.
The global economy could start to decelerate Clearly, it is still too early to determine the exact impact that the European financial crisis will have on the real economy. Judging by the latest available data, the global industrial production cycle is fully in swing. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI decelerated slightly in April, but still implied strong growth ahead. However, we find it increasingly likely that global economic activity will start to decelerate going forward. Europe suffers from a big North- South competitiveness divide, an indebted consumer and overstretched government finances all of which could put GDP growth on a lower trend path over the coming quarters. Moreover, it is no secret that European economies are closely interdependent when it comes to trade, so a crisis in Southern Europe can have a big impact on Northern European economies through the export channel.
In addition to the obvious trade linkages, European countries hold each other's debt, highlighting why contagion across the Eurozone occurred at such a rapid pace during the past few weeks
NGL supply is also a big surprise factor NGLs, liquids derived from the processing of natural gas, has been a surprising source of global liquids supply growth in recent years. The proliferation of natural gas projects worldwide, particularly increasingly large LNG projects, is a major factor of growth, contributing more liquids than even some new conventional crude oil projects . Based on our estimates, OPEC will supply about 800 thousand b/d of NGLs by the end of the year, up from only 300 thousand b/d in the last quarter of 2009 (Chart 18). After growing 6% last year, the expected growth in 2010 might reach 15% with another 10% expected in 2011. Even after accounting
for recently announced delays with the start up of Qatargas III Trains 6 and 7, now scheduled to start March of 2011, Qatar remains a major contributor to NGL growth along with Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Nigeria.
OPEC crude supply to increase by about 550k b/d OPEC output growth is expected to come back to positive territory with an increase of 554 and 477 thousand b/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, following last year's record fall in production. With sluggish demand and output recovery, spare capacity stands at about 6.4 million b/d with the addition of major new fields in Saudi Arabia and Angola. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has been especially slow in ramping up production despite net productive capacity increases of more than 1 million b/d since the end of 2008.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices recovered from overnight slump in Asian trade Friday but remained highly volatile as the dollar gained momentum.
Spot gold was seen trading at $1235.54 an ounce at 11.30 a.m Singapore time while U.S. gold futures for June delivery was at $1,235.8 an ounce at the same time.
The euro dropped against the dollar on Friday as concerns grow about anaemic growth in the euro zone.
The single currency has broken the bottom of its recent trading range near $1.2610 and is expected to test key support near $1.25.
Analysts say the precious yellow metal moved up as investors turned their backs on the euro on worries that Europe crisis will slow growth.
They said the bullion was heading for its fourth consecutive weekly rise, equalling a run that ended in late November.
Its safe haven appeal has increased on worries a $1 trillion rescue package to prevent a Greek debt crisis from spreading to other euro zone states would eventually fail. Bullion struck a record high of $1,248.15 on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings were unchanged at a record high of 1,209.499 metric tones as of May 13, which suggested that investors had little desire to book profits yet.
On Thursday US gold futures ended 1 percent lower as investors locked up profits after the metal hit record highs the past two days. June contract settled at $1,229.20 an ounce.
(ibtimes)

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
 (ibtimes)

Crude Oil closed lower on Thursday as it resumed last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends today's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : World oil prices continued its southern journey and dropped below $74 in Asian trade Friday mainly on demand concerns linked to European debt crisis.
Light sweet crude for June delivery was seen trading at $ 73.75 a barrel at 11.30 a.m Singapore time while Brent crude was at $ 79.77 a barrel in London.
Analysts said the black gold was also hit by a stronger dollar that reduced the purchasing power of other currency holders for oil and also on rising stockpiles in the United States.
High crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma pricing point for Americas benchmark West Texas Intermediate are exercising pressure on contracts closest to delivery, creating the sharpest contango market structure in 15 months.
However, analysts say European benchmark ICE Brent was poised to end the week higher, despite an early dip, Friday, when the June contract expires.
On Thursday, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for June delivery, dropped $1.25 to $74.40 a barrel after falling as low as $73.62, its lowest level in three months.
London's Brent North Sea crude for June shed $1.09 to settle at $80.11. June contract expires Friday.
(ibtimes)

Comex gold price rallies to a new 2010-high at 1219.4, one more step closer to record high of 1227.5 made in December, as fears over sovereign crisis resurfaces. Moody's said it may cut Greece's rating to 'junk' in the coming month amid 'dismal' economic prospect. Silver also grinds higher to 18.6 while PGMs reverse gains.
Risk assets' massive relief rally loses steam as investors worry that the stability package may not be sufficient to contain European sovereign crisis. Market sentiment is further dampened after receiving strong Chinese inflation data as it signals more tightening. WTI crude oil price plunges to 75.6 in European session while Brent crude falls below 80 again.
Growth in China remained robust in April. Although industrial production missed market expectations and expanded +17.8% y/y, CPI soared +2.8% y/y, the fastest pace in 8 months. Despite the government's policy to curb lending, property prices rose +12.8% y/y while new lending also exceeded consensus and reached RMB 774B.
While the Chinese government aims to keep inflation at 3%, recent data shows that it's hard for this target to be achieved. Escalated inflationary pressure indicates more tightening measures are needed. It's likely the government will resume RMB appreciation soon, probably in June.
Crude oil imports rose to 21.17M tons in April. With exports remained sluggish, net imports reached a record high of 20.98M tons during the month. However, there are concerns that demand will slowdown as China accelerates tightening.
In its monthly report, OPEC upgraded its global demand forecast modestly. The organization controlling 40% of oil in the world expects demand will rise to 85.38M bpd in 2010 from 84.4M bpd last year. This was slightly higher than last month's forecast of 85.2M bpd. According to OPEC, China has been among the main drivers behind oil demand growth so far this year, which should continue for the rest of the year. On the supply side, non-OPEC supply will rise to 51.7M bpd, compared with 81.53M bpd projected in April. This signals less oil is needed from OPEC.
Demand/supply in oil market is again in focus and analysts anticipate US crude inventory rose +1.1 mmb in the week ended May 7 with Cushing stocks surging for another week. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles probably climbed +0.8 mmb and +1.3 mmb, respectively. American Petroleum Institute will release its estimates after market close today.
(ibtimes)

Spot Crude Oil prices rebounded following the release of the $1 trillion EU bailout package. The rise in the commodity coincided with higher equities and a rise in overall risk sentiment. This comes after the previous week's sharp losses for the commodity.
The price of spot Crude Oil finished the day at $77.38 from an opening day price of $76. At one point prices were up 4% during yesterday's trading.
After the weekend publication of the EU plan, traders found reason to take on more risk, buying Crude Oil. The EU package is a positive for commodities after the large sell off of commodities and other risky assets during the previous week. This buying trend should continue and allow the price of spot Crude Oil to make up the lost ground from last week when the price fell almost 13%. A short term target for spot Crude Oil may be the resistance line at $82.
(ibtimes)

VIENNA (Commodity Online) : OPEC on Tuesday said it's forecast for global oil demand remained unchanged at 1.1 percent or by 0.9 million barrels per day.
In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said although the economic recovery shows signs of improving momentum, important risks remain that could impact demand growth expectations for this year.
OPEC noted that China will continue to be the main growth driver behind oil demand growth for rest of the year, despite the recent price increase in its gasoline and diesel retail sales.
However, the forecast for 2010 will mostly depend on U.S. performance.
Apart from the U.S., all the expected growth in oil demand this year is taking place outside the OECD, led by Asia, the group said.
According to the latest report, the forecast for non-OPEC supply growth was revised by 30 trillion barrels/day.
Meanwhile, total OECD oil supply is expected to average 19.49 million barrels/day in 2010, a decline of 0.15 million barrels/day from the previous year, an upward revision of 0.10 million barrels/day.(source ibtimes)

Crude Oil closed lower due to short covering on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing thereby signalling that a short-term low has likely been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish with this week's rally signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.(source ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices eased in Asian trade Friday, after an overnight surge, as investors turned to profit booking.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $ 1206.71 an ounce at 12.00 noon Singapore time while US gold futures for June delivery was at $1,200.40at the same time.
Analysts said gold has gained as much as 10 percent this year as investors spooked by potential contagion from the eurozone debt crisis rushed to buy to the precious metal, whose safe haven appeal tends to increase in times of economic and geopolitical crises.
On Thursday, spot gold ended at $1207.25 an ounce after hitting as high as $1210.35 an ounce, its biggest one-day gain in more than a year.
Gold struck record at $1,226.10 five months ago. Dealers expected volatile trade ahead, with investors waiting for U.S. nonfarm payrolls later on Friday which could give clues on the state of the economy.
Meanwhile, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at a record high of 1,185.787 tones as of May 6, up from 1,166.002 tones in the previous business day
Gold may target its previous record as concern that financial turmoil will spread from Greece across Europe prompts investors to seek refuge in the metal, according to Morgan Stanley.
The precious metal has gained 7.1 percent this year, hitting peaks in euro, sterling and Swiss franc terms.(source ibtimes,,)

Gold closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Fridayy. Prices closed nearer the session high today as traders stepped in to "buy the dip" and do some bargain hunting at lower price levels. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in gold today.(ibtimes.com)