Srie Hartati

Crude Oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing is the next upside target.
(ibtimes)

Gold posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. August gold pulled back from a fresh record high today after the rally lost momentum and a stronger dollar pressured the market. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project.
(ibtimes)

David A. Banister- ActiveTradingPartners.com/TheMarketTrendForecast.com
Let me first start by saying I've been a long term "Gold Bull" since the fall of 2001, based both on economic factors as well as Elliott Wave patterns that I think are clear on Gold's Bull rise. As we are now almost in a Fibonacci 21 months of Gold rally off the October 2008 bottom, I think this pattern is getting long in the tooth.
Gold has risen from $681 at the nadir of the fall of 2008 to $1265 so far, with potential to run to about $1300-$1325 an ounce on this final leg up. It stands to reason, as with any Bull Market that the Bull gets tired and at some point has to hibernate. This wave pattern is clearly 5 waves since the October 2008 lows, and we are in the final stages of the 5th wave of this pattern in my opinion. That means we can have a blow-off top, or we truncate here and start correcting hard.
Bull patterns tend to peak when most are not expecting it, and I forecasted a market top in Mid January and again in Mid April this year in the SP 500 index just prior to huge drops. These forecasts were based on sentiment and Elliott Wave patterns. I am now viewing the $681 to $1,265 rally in Gold as a 5 wave bullish structure that is in the final stages of ascent. Fifth waves are notoriously difficult to predict, but taking some off the table here for intermediate traders is probably a wise decision. Correcting 38% or 50% of the $600 rally would take Gold back to $1030 to $965 area plus or minus, and not invalidate a larger bull structure.
If you would like to view a video forecast with a chart and audio commentary on this Gold forecast, and the preceding wave patterns,(ibtimes)

Gold prices gained momentum on bargain hunting in Asian trade Tuesday despite broad drops by all major commodities.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1239.69 an ounce at 12.00 noon Singapore time while U.S. gold futures for August delivery was at $1,241.7 an ounce.
Analysts however said the bullion market sentiment still underpinned by Europe's debt crisis and record high ETF holdings although it struggled to revisit last week's all-time high.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings were unchanged at a record high at 1,316.177 metric tones.
The euro was under pressure on Tuesday and dangerously close to a key support level, as funding concerns about the euro zone drove investors to the safe-haven Swiss franc.
On Monday, commodities fell broadly, with oil down as the market grew less worried that a storm in the U.S. Gulf would threaten oil and gas installations while metals slid on caution about an impending U.S. jobs report.
Gold for August delivery dropped $17.60, or 1.4 per cent, to $1238.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest loss for a most-active contract since June 21.
(ibtimes)

Gold prices consolidated positions in Asian trade Thursday on market uncertainty as equity markets and euro movements failed to give any directions for investors.
Analysts said the situation prompted safe haven buying and benefited the precious yellow metal.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $ 1231.84 an ounce at 11.30 a.m Singapore time while U.S. gold futures for August delivery was at $ 1235.06 an ounce.
The euro consolidated below two-week highs on Thursday, with most investors on the sidelines ahead of a raft of bond auctions in the euro zone area as fresh concerns about Spain's banking system weigh down on sentiment.
However, world's largest gold exchange-traded-fund, the SPDR Gold Trust which stands at a record high of 1,306.137 tonnes, unchanged since June 10.
On Wednesday, Gold inched down after dipping in and out of the red most of the session as investors seemed to go for stocks and other rising riskier assets.
Gold for August delivery, the most active futures contract, lost $3.90, or 0.3%, to $1,230.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Silver for July delivery fell 13.7 cents to $18.441 an ounce. Platinum for July delivery fell $10.50 to settle at $1,567.50 an ounce, and palladium for September delivery dipped 35 cents to $475.20 an ounce.
Gold had hit a lifetime high of $1,251.20 last week.
(ibtimes)

Crude Oil closed higher on Monday and is poised to renew last week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
(ibtimes)

Gold showed signs of recovery in Asian trade as investors turned to safe haven buying on reports of Greek inability to repay its debts.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1220.24 an ounce while US gold futures for August delivery was at $1222.5 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
A report by Moody's cast's doubts about Greece's ability to solve its debt problems reminded investors that the debt crisis in Europe was far from over.
The report sends Asian stocks lower Tuesday and also hit the European single currency.
Euro rally against the dollar eased as investors booked profits and sentiment toward the single currency remained fragile.
Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, were unchanged at a record 1306.14 metric tons.
However, platinum dropped for the first time in four days, losing 0.2 per cent to $1556.50 an ounce. Palladium gained 0.3 per cent to $459.25 an ounce, while silver climbed 0.3 per cent to $18.28 an ounce.
Bullion rallied to a record high last week on worries that the European sovereign debt crisis is spreading and the U.S. economy may be slowing.
On Monday, gold dropped below $1,220 an ounce as improving appetite for assets seen as higher risk, such as equities and the euro, lessened interest in the metal as a safe haven investment.
Spot gold closed at $1,217.45 an ounce while U.S. gold futures for August delivery was at $1,224.50 an ounce.
(ibtimes)

Gold closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : World oil prices advanced above $74 a barrel in Asian trade Monday mainly after equity markets surged in the region.
Light sweet crude for July delivery was seen trading at $ 74.71 a barrel at 12.noon Singapore time while Brent crude was at $ 75.00 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.
Equity markets across Asia gained momentum with Japan's Nikkei rose 1.7 percent as traders bet the region's strong economic growth will boost company profits.
Investors will be eyeing reports on U.S. housing starts, industrial production and consumer prices this week for clues about the strength of the global economy.
Oil prices rose 3.2 percent last week despite weak U.S. jobs and retail sales figures, a sign that suggests crude may continue to climb this week.
The dollar weakened about 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY, with the euro at a one-week high, while Japanese stocks rose led by the technology sector as the nation's manufacturers grew more optimistic about the business environment in the April-June quarter.
In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil rose 1.60 cents to $2.0213 a gallon and gasoline gained 1.95 cents to $2.0692 a gallon. Natural gas was up 9.8 cents at $4.879 per 1,000 cubic feet.
On Friday, July delivery fell $1.70 to $73.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since June 8. The contract gained 3.2 per cent this week and is up 1.5 per cent from a year ago.
Brent oil for July delivery declined 94 cents, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at $74.35 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
(ibtimes)

Crude Oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices continued its northern journey in Asian trade Monday as the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1229.18 an ounce at 12 noon Singapore time while US gold futures for August delivery was at $1230.57 an ounce.
The greenback weakened about 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies Monday as the euro's short-covering rally took it briefly above $1.22 against the dollar, its strongest in a week.
Gold struck a record at $1,251.20 last week on fears the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis may spread.
Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust were unchanged at a record high of 1,306.137 metric tons.
Other precious metals were mostly steady on Monday, waiting for cues from bullion.
On Friday, trading was volatile with prices falling to a low around $1,214 an ounce just two days after it hit an all-time high.
US gold futures for delivery in August gained $8, or 0.7 per cent, to $1,230.20 on the Comex in New York. The metal gained 1 per cent this week.
(ibtimes)

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold eased in Asian trade Tuesday after overnight gains near two percent on concerns over falling stocks, volatile currencies amid Euro zone debt worries.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1237.24 an ounce at 11.00 a.m Singapore time while U S gold futures for August delivery was at $1,239.6 ounce at the same time.
The European single currency unit, the euro held near four years lows on Tuesday, with funds expected to resume selling on lingering concerns about the European financial system, even though finance ministers from the euro zone had agreed to set up a safety net arrangement.
On Monday, the precious yellow metal rallied to within inches of its dollar record and beat its all-time high in euros today as investors increasingly buy the metal as a hedge against financial deterioration in the euro zone.
Most-actively traded gold, for August delivery, rose $23.10, or 1.9 per cent, to settle at $1240.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
That just missed the $1243.10 record close for a most-active contract set in mid-May. Nearby futures had their largest one-day US dollar and percentage gain since February 16.
(ibtimes)

HANOI (Commodity Online) : Vietnam's banking system witnessed drastic dips in gold deposits during April and May.
According to Vietnam Banking Association, over the last two months, the volume of gold on deposit in banks decreased by 15 percent, or 16,000-20,000 taels.
People have withdrawn their gold deposits and sold gold while the gold prices were high. Further, as deposit interest rates paid for gold have fallen sharply, many people have sold gold for dollars or dong, and deposited the cash at banks at a higher interest rates
Analysts confirm that the quiet gold market and unattractive interest rates banks are paying on gold deposits have induced people not to keep gold any more.
Overall, the volume of gold on deposit in Vietnam's banking system was about 400,000-500,000 taels, but has now dropped to below 300,000 taels.
Commercial banks themselves are indifferent to depositors who withdraw gold deposits, because they have no one to lend to since the Government banned speculative trading in gold early this year.
The gold exchanges have been shuttered and people no longer borrow gold for speculation. The General Statistics Office reports jeweler's gold exports from Vietnam of $800 million in May.
There is been no official estimate of the total amount of gold imported to Vietnam over the years. For many years, Vietnam was once of the world's principal gold importers, including imports through both official and unofficial channels.
According to the State Bank, declared gold imports in 2005-2008 were 281 tons. In 2009, declared gold imports were inconsiderable. In 2010, only SJC has been allowed to import gold, six tons altogether.
The World Gold Council estimates that only 20 to 30 percent of all the gold held by Vietnamese is deposited at banks. The Council believes that 500-600 tons have been imported to Vietnam 'over many years.'
An industry expert calculates that in the last three years, $2.7 billion of gold, some 90 tons, has been exported through official channels, and that the cash has been invested mainly in business ventures.

Crude Oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing is the next downside target.
(ibtimes)

Continued to be a tug of war between bulls and bears, crude oil price initially fell below 70, extending Friday's weakness after disappointing US payrolls and worries over Hungary's fiscal condition, but then rebounded to as high as 72.49 after an encouraging employment trend survey released by the Conference Board and a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Yet, concerns over Eurozone have persisted and price retreated in late trade. The front-month WTI contract ended the day flat at 71.44. Corresponding Brent crude contract moved in a similar pattern but closed at 73.59. Today in Asia, oil prices trade with upward bias, as Asian stocks recover after yesterday's selloff.
In the US, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index soared in May for the 9th consecutive month. The index, at 95.7 last month, increased from April's revised figure of 95.2 and has been up almost +9% from a year ago. This eased market's concerns, after getting Friday's payroll data, that US' job market will deteriorate again.
Ben Bernanke's comments on economic outlook and monetary policy turned slightly more hawkish. The Fed chairman said the nation's economic is 'moderate-paced' and signaled the central bank may hike the policy rate ahead of full employment, 'it will be the case that when we start the process of tightening policy that the economy will not yet be back at full employment'.
Market sentiment was also lifted as EU finance Ministers reached agreement on the details of the 440B-euro IMF stabilization facility which is a part of the EU/IMF rescue package worth 750B euro. A new entity will be formed to sell bonds for capital-raising. The money raised will be used as loans for Eurozone members when needed. Bonds will only be issued after a loan is requested by a member nation.
In IMF's report regarding growth outlook in the Eurozone, the world lender said the current crisis 'results from fiscally unsustainable policies in some countries, delayed repair of the financial system, insufficient progress in establishing the discipline and flexibility needed for a smooth functioning of monetary union, and deficient governance of the euro area'. Policymakers in the Eurozone need to take decisive action to complete their project of monetary union with focuses on 'enforcing budgetary discipline, helped by fundamental legislative reform, and on addressing macroeconomic imbalances' as well as extending 'the progress made in establishing more harmonized regulation and supervision of the EU financial system to the area of crisis management and resolution'.
The report indicates IMF's worries over the 16-nation region's deficit problems and the impacts of growth. Indeed, most investors share the same fear despite recent wax and wane in financial markets. Therefore, we are seeing more capitals flowing in gold. Comex gold futures surged to a 3-week high at 1246.7 before settling at 1240.8, up +1.9%. Yesterday's high was just 3 dollars below the record high of 1249.7. Silver rallied in tandem. After plummeting to 17.195, the benchmark contract jumped more than 1 dollar to as high as 18.295 and eventually closed at 18.162, up +5%
(ibtimes)

Gold closed higher due to profit taking on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, May's high crossing is the next upside target.
(ibtimes)

SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices remained steady in Asian trade Wednesday mainly on increased safe-haven buying after a report said European banks face sizeable write-offs.
Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1223.55 an ounce at 11.30 a.m Singapore time while gold for August delivery was at $ 1226.97 an ounce.
Analysts said market sentiment was weighted towards higher bullion prices with a chance of challenging last month's record high of $1,248.95 on momentum from investment demand.
Meanwhile, Japan's TOCOM gold futures rose Wednesday on news that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama intends to resign sent the yen lower. TOCOM gold futures JAUc6 rose 0.6 or 23 yen per gram to 3,613 yen at 12 noon Tokyo time.
On Tuesday, gold for August delivery added $11.90 to settle at $1,226.90 an ounce as investors pushed more money into gold-backed securities.
World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings totaled 1,268.234 tones as of June 1 versus 1,267.930 tones on May 27, setting a record high.
In India, world's largest gold consumer, retail price of gold for jewellery breached the Rs.19,000 mark for 10 gm for the first time ever on Tuesday on account of the surge in global spot and futures markets, but settled eventually at Rs.18,700.
In India's gold futures markets, the yellow metal touched Rs.18,750 for July 10 delivery, up nearly 2 percent.
(ibtimes)

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing is the next upside target.
(ibtimes)

Financial markets resumed volatile trading yesterday as the UK and the US were back from holiday. Spurred by weaknesses in Asian and European session, US bourses began the day lower. This added pressure on crude oil prices with WTI and Brent futures plunging to as low as 71.64 and 71.51, respectively. Better-than-expected ISM data in the US did boost sentiment a bit and stimulated rebounds. Yet both the Wall Street and energy ended the day with loses. D%JIA and S&P 500 slid -1.7% and -1.1% respectively. WTI and Brent crude closed at 72.58 (-2.50%) and 72.71 (-2.60%), respectively.
US ISM manufacturing index dipped -0.7 points to 59.7 in May while the market had anticipated a sharply fall to 59.4. Details in the report reinforced underlying strength in the manufacturing sector. 'New orders' and 'production' stayed above 60 while exports orders rose to 62 from April's 61. 'Employment' improved to 59.8 from April's 58.5. Construction spending surged +2.7% m/m in April, compared with consensus of a flat reading and March's mild growth of +0.2%. While the biggest expansion since 2000 was boosted by rush-buying ahead of tax credit expiry, the reading was encouraging.
Gold shone as concerns over European sovereign lingered. The benchmark contract soared +1.21% to 1226.9, the highest close since May 17. The euro yesterday slumped to a 4-year low against the dollar as ECB's Financial Stability Review said that the financial sector is facing tremendous risks from deficit problems and banks may need to write down as much as 195B euro these 2 years.
The ECB warned that 'notwithstanding plans for fiscal consolidation, the sizeable near-term funding requirements of governments could still crowd out issuance of bonds by banks. The risk that this implies for bank funding costs also raises the possibility of a setback to the recovery in banking sector profitability'. We believe the situation will benefit gold as demand for the yellow metal normally increases when government heavily increases spending and during 'crowd-out' which will result in high inflation but stagnant economic growth.
Commodity currencies were generally lower with AUD, CAD and NDZ falling 0.6-1.7% against USD. The RBA decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% in June as current level in interest rates is 'appropriate' and the crisis in the Eurozone increases uncertainty in global economic outlook. The market currently prices in no rate hike until next year while the chance of a rate cut in October rises to 12%. The BOC raised the overnight rate by +25 bps to 0.5% as robust domestic economic growth warranted gradual exit from the ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Yet, CAD slid as the central bank cautioned that future market developments remained considerably uncertain and 'any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments'.
(ibtimes)

Gold closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing is the next upside target.
(ibtimes)

Crude Oil closed higher due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of Friday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews this month's decline, last July's low crossing is the next downside target.
(ibtimes)

 

Harga palm oil atau minyak sawit anjlok seiring dengan rendahnya permintaan dan meningkatnya pasokan minyak yang bisa dikonsumsi.

Harga minyak sawit untuk pengiriman Agustus anjlok 0,9% ke level 2.436 ringgit atau US$747 per metrik ton di Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. Kemerosotan ini membukukan penurunan total 4,8% sepanjang Mei 2010.

Sementara itu, di Dalian Commodity Exchange, pengiriman minyak sawit untuk bulan Januari 2011 turun 1,2% menjadi 6.584 yuan atau setara dengan US$ 964 per ton; turun 5,3% sepanjang bulan Mei ini.

Menurut survey independen Intertek, ekspor minyak sawit dari Malaysia naik 13% pada bulan Mei 2010 lalu menjadi 1,33 juta ton. Minyak sawit tersebut paling banyak dilempar ke India dan Amerika Serikat.

Ekspor ke India dan wilayah di sekitarnya naik 21% menjadi 211.080 ton pada bulan Mei 2010, naik dari 173.760 ton di bulan April. Sementara itu, penjualan ke China naik menjadi 327.300 ton pada bulan Mei, naik dari sebelumnya di bulan April yang hanya 324.657 ton.

Asal tahu saja, India merupakan negara yang mengkonsumsi minyak sawit terbesar di dunia. China merupakan pengguna untuk semua jenis edible oil.

Penjualan minyak sawit ke Eropa sebagai pasar terbesar Malaysia justru anjlok dari 275.118 ton menjadi 235.408 ton. Pasalnya, lemahnya euro terhadap dolar AS telah membabat permintaan minyak sawit ini. Bulan Mei lalu, ringgit juga naik menguat 5,6% terhadao euro.

Pengiriman minyak sawit ke AS melonjak tajam dari 88.074 di bulan April menjadi 222.215 ton.

Data yang dirilis oleh lembaga survei lain, yaitu Societe Generale de Surveillance, menunjukkan kenaikan ekspor sawit dari Malaysia ini sebesar 8,6% menjadi 1.,2 juta ton.